The Messy Middle of Web3: How Smart Teams Get Users to Say Yes

Whatever you’re building in Web3—an exchange, a wallet, an NFT game, or a blockchain-based consumer app—there’s a complex space your product must pass through to succeed. It’s not the blockchain. It’s not the backend. It’s the brain.

Buying crypto. Choosing an exchange. Storing assets. Minting an NFT. Every one of these decisions is processed in the most complex space in the known universe: the human brain. And while we like to think these choices are driven by rational comparison and logical deduction, behavioural science tells us otherwise.

In fact, research from Harvard Business School suggests that up to 95% of purchase decisions are made in the subconscious. The conscious mind may believe it’s steering — but more often, it's post-rationalising what the subconscious has already decided.

So, what does this mean for Web3?

It means that navigating the cognitive terrain between intent and action — a space referred to as the messy middle — is just as important as the product itself. And for anyone in web3 looking to drive adoption or grow market share, understanding how people make decisions in this messy middle can create a decisive advantage.

Rewiring decision-making: six behavioural shortcuts

In a large-scale set of experiments simulating over 310,000 purchase decisions across 31 product categories, researchers identified six behavioural biases that consistently influenced people’s choices, often at the expense of more rational alternatives. These weren’t just nudges at the margins — they fundamentally changed outcomes.

When participants were exposed to just two of the six biases, a substantial number shifted away from their favourite brand to a second-choice competitor. When all six were activated, even fictional brands with no name recognition were able to outperform market leaders.

This wasn’t limited to shampoo or sneakers. These effects showed up even in high-involvement categories that more closely resemble crypto in terms of decision-making complexity — like insurance, holidays, and mortgages.

So, what were the biases?

1. Social proof – People tend to follow the crowd.
2. Category heuristics – Simple rules of thumb shape quick decisions.
3. Authority bias – Trusted experts influence behaviour.
4. Power of now – Immediacy increases motivation.
5. Scarcity – Limited availability boosts perceived value.
6. Power of free – Zero-cost offers create disproportionate appeal.

Many of us intuitively recognise these concepts — we’ve felt them at play in our own purchase journeys. But what’s less obvious is just how powerful they can be.

Take mortgages, for example. In 10,000 simulated buying decisions, when all six biases were activated, 76% of in-market homeowners switched from their preferred provider to their second choice. Even more striking, 63% switched to a completely fictional brand they had never seen before.

The complexity of Web3 decision-making

Now consider a day in the life of a crypto-native user. They want to buy some tokens. There are tens of thousands of assets to choose from. Dozens of exchanges. Hundreds of wallets. Thousands of voices offering advice — influencers, experts, traders, pseudonymous accounts. Everyone has a chart. Everyone has an opinion.

Even if they ignore price action, tokenomics, and tech specs, they still have to decide: Where to buy? How to store it? Should they bridge it to another chain? Stake it? Swap it?

This is cognitive overload by design. And before our brains reach their limits of processing, emotion has already entered the chat. Web3 is fluent in FOMO, HODL, and WAGMI for a reason: these aren’t just memes, they’re emotionally resonant cues — and emotion is the fuel of decision-making.

As the mortgage example shows, if a made-up provider can win over nearly two-thirds of demand using just six behavioural cues, imagine what’s possible in Web3 — where complexity, uncertainty, and emotional decision-making are even more pronounced.

In the face of infinite choice, people rely on shortcuts. They don’t always choose what’s best — they choose what’s easiest to understand, socially validated, or emotionally satisfying in the moment.

What this means for Web3 builders & marketers

Web3 builders and marketers face a unique set of challenges:

• New behaviours (e.g. using seed phrases, self-custody, interacting with smart contracts)
• High friction UX
• Low trust and high risk environments
• Constant cognitive load
• Turbulent market dynamics

Yet despite these real frictions, many projects still lead with feature-based messaging. They focus on functionality instead of friction and ignore the behavioural context in which decisions are made.

The behavioural science behind the messy middle suggests that subtle changes to how options are presented — not the options themselves — can drive outsized results. These include:

• Highlighting social validation (“Used by 500,000+ users”)
• Using heuristics (“Cold storage for under $50”)
• Anchoring to expert voices or mainstream analogies (“Like PayPal, but decentralised”)
• Emphasising immediacy (“Funds available instantly”)
• Framing scarcity (“Limited whitelist spots remaining”)
• Leveraging the power of free (“Zero gas fees for first transaction”)

These aren’t gimmicks. They’re evidence-based mechanisms that align with how people actually make decisions — especially in categories like crypto, where trust is fragile, information is overwhelming, and the emotional stakes are high.

Real-world results: behavioural nudges in action

As a real-world example, one of our clients recently partnered with us to explore how behavioural science could be applied to drive more user conversions and transaction volume within a wallet app environment.

In a series of randomized experiments involving over 3,000 U.S.-based crypto users, we tested the impact of subtle behavioural nudges rooted in the principles of Power of Now, Power of Free, and Authority Bias.

The results were striking. One immediacy-based nudge more than tripled the likelihood of users choosing a particular option. Others — offering free digital rewards or trust cues from third parties — also drove significant lifts. Importantly, these weren’t the result of better pricing or superior features. The only change was how options were presented at the moment of decision.

And the impact wasn’t just incremental. Across the board, these nudges not only boosted overall conversion — they redirected share away from dominant, more familiar competitors. When the cognitive load is high and the stakes are real, it turns out even the tiniest behavioural cue can move the needle in a big way.

↑233%Increase

increase in user conversions following the application of a single ‘Power of Now’ behavioral nudge in a Web3 wallet app.

An uncomfortable truth: this insight came from Google

It’s worth pausing to acknowledge the source of these findings.

The behavioural simulation research was conducted by an independent consultancy (The Behavioural Architects) and published by Google. Yes — the same Google that many in Web3 view as emblematic of everything Web3 is trying to decentralise.

And yet, the validity of the research remains undeniable. In fact, Google went a step further by allowing those same behavioural biases to be tested against its own search rankings — and published the results, even when they didn’t serve its interests.

It’s a reminder that insights are tools. What matters is how we use them. And in Web3, where user adoption is often the difference between a protocol’s success or stagnation, behavioural science offers one of the most underused tools available.

Winning in the Messy Middle

The messy middle isn’t a just a phase users pass through — it’s the arena where products compete, perceptions are shaped, and choices are made. It’s where people weigh their options, hesitate, compare, and ultimately decide whether to engage with you — or someone else.

In Web3, this space is even more contested. Users are navigating unfamiliar concepts, overloaded with information, surrounded by noise, and unsure who to trust. The teams that succeed here aren’t always the ones with the best technology or the most comprehensive feature set. They’re the ones who understand how people actually make decisions — and who make it easiest for users to choose them.

Behavioural science gives Web3 builders and marketers the tools to compete more effectively in this decision-making arena. It shows that the way options are framed, the cues people are given, and the emotional signals embedded in the experience can make the difference between being chosen or ignored.

If you're serious about growing in Web3, you can't just build the right product. You need to win in the space where choices are made.

That’s the messy middle. And mastering it is how smart teams get users to say yes. ◼️

About the Author

Alistair Rennie is Global Head of Innovation & Thought Leadership at Protocol Theory. Formerly a Research Lead at Google, he was lead author of the landmark “Messy Middle” report on consumer decision-making. With over 25 years’ experience in consumer insight, strategy, and innovation, Alistair now helps Web3 brands generate fresh perspectives on existing challenges to help drive new growth.